Why Savvy Upsizers Are Acting Now

If you’ve been watching the market here in Markham and across the GTA, you’ve likely noticed the shift. Prices have softened, inventory has finally opened up, and for the first time in a long while, buyers actually have some breathing room. On the surface, it looks like the green light you’ve been waiting for.

However, as we often remind our clients at The Procenko Group, if you’re an upsizer, you’re not just a buyer—you’re a seller, too. In a quieter market like the one we are seeing, success requires a much more calculated strategy than the "anything goes" frenzy of the early 2020s.

The good news? With the right plan, this year may be one of the most financially strategic windows we’ve seen in decades to trade up to that "forever" home.

The Upsizer Math: Why Softer Prices Work in Your Favour

According to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, the average GTA selling price this February is approximately $973,289—down 6.5% year-over-year and below $1M for the first time in years. While sales volume has slowed, active listings are up roughly 8%.

Translation: you have more choice and significantly less competition.

If you were only buying, that would be a clear win. But as an upsizer, your real opportunity lies in the price gap between the home you are selling and the one you are buying.

• A 6.5% dip on a $700,000 condo means roughly $45,000 less on your sale.

• But that same 6.5% dip on a $1.4M detached home means over $90,000 in savings on your purchase.

In a softer market, you are essentially "losing" less on the bottom and saving significantly more on the top. That spread is real money that stays in your pocket, and right now, the math is tilting heavily in your favour.

What It Costs to Move Up Right Now

Here is where average prices are currently landing across the City of Toronto (416) and the broader GTA (905) for January 2026:

If you are moving from a condo to a detached home in the 905, the current spread is roughly $617,000. While that is still a significant figure, it is far more manageable than it was during peak pricing cycles. 

Buy First or Sell First?

This depends entirely on your starting point, and we look at every client’s situation through a unique lens:

• If you own a condo: We generally recommend selling first. Condo inventory is currently high and very price-sensitive. Selling first gives you certainty on your numbers before you commit to a purchase, and with more inventory available on the buy side, you’ll have options when you’re ready to move.

• If you own a house or townhouse in a desirable area, you may have more flexibility to buy first. Freehold properties, particularly in established neighbourhoods, are still moving, and if you find the right home at the right price, you don’t want to lose it while waiting for your current place to sell. But be conservative with your price estimates.

Regardless of what you own, talk to your lender about your options before you do anything. Understand what you qualify for, whether you can port your mortgage (and whether you should), and what bridge financing would cost if your closing dates don’t line up. The Bank of Canada overnight rate is sitting at 2.25% and the prime rate is at 4.5%, better than the peak, but mortgage planning is still critical.

Where You Have Leverage (and Where You Don’t)

In this market, the leverage is a "split screen" experience:

• On the Buy Side: You have real power. Conditions are back. Home inspections are common again. Sellers are more flexible on closing dates and inclusions than we’ve seen in years.

• On the Sell Side: You must earn your price. Because inventory is higher, buyers have options. This is where our focus on presentation and precision matters most. We don't just list homes; we prepare them to be the cleanest, best-maintained option in their category so they stand out and sell efficiently without lingering on the market.

The Bottom Line

2026 isn’t a powerful year for upsizing because the market is "booming." It’s powerful because the math of moving up works better when prices are soft. You are trading a smaller discount on your current home for a much larger opportunity on your next one.

As rates remain stable and consumer confidence slowly returns, that negotiating gap will eventually shrink. Windows like this simply don’t stay open forever.

If you’re even considering a move up in Markham or the GTA, this is the time to get your ducks in a row and run the numbers. Get pre-approved and understand your full financial picture, not just the purchase, but the costs of selling, moving, and carrying a potentially more expensive home.  Need help crunching the numbers? Let us know and we'll do some 'upsizing math' for your home.

Prefer to 'Downsize'?

If your goal is to transition into a home and lifestyle that is more manageable, or if you are looking to unlock the equity in your home to fund your retirement, the current stability of the market is actually a gift. It allows you to make a move on your own terms rather than being reactive to a volatile market.

Your success this spring won't come from waiting for a "boom" that isn't on the horizon. It will come from understanding the local Markham and GTA data, presenting your home with precision, and having a team behind you that knows how to navigate a slower-paced market.

There are buyers out there waiting for a home that feels like the right fit. The question is: will your home be the one that gives them the confidence to act?

Whether you are looking to upsize, downsize, or just want a clear picture of what your home is worth in today's market, we are only a phone call away. Let’s make sure your next step is the right one.

— The Procenko Group

One of your better moves.